enjoy your good stats :D

https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/1rvsrsx/chris_simms_qb_rankings_vs_the_actual_nfl_draft/

stumbled on this in comments of the Browns' Monken interview:

Saturday, Jan. 10

4:30 p.m. 5 Los Angeles Rams at 4 Carolina Panthers (FOX, FOX Deportes) - yeah Rams easy, previous upset not enough to change my mind

8 p.m. 7 Green Bay Packers at 2 Chicago Bears (Prime Video) - this would be a good game to drink to!!  i'll pick the Bears, but not with a ton of confidence

Sunday, Jan. 11

1 p.m. 6 Buffalo Bills at 3 Jacksonville Jaguars (CBS, Paramount+) - This game should be the game of the week;  I'll take Jags in a shootout.  

4:30 p.m. 6 San Francisco 49ers at 3 Philadelphia Eagles (FOX, FOX Deportes) - I'll be cheering for the niners, but 4real they too beat up.  money's on Eagles.

8 p.m. 7 Los Angeles Chargers at 2 New England Patriots (NBC, Peacock, Universo) - i'll take this as the designated trap game.  Chargers grind out an ugly win.

Monday, Jan. 12

8 p.m. 5 Houston Texans at 4 Pittsburgh (ESPN/ABC/ESPN+/ ESPN Deportes; ManningCast-ESPN2/ESPN+) - Houston.  but also not with a ton of confidence.  what happens when two smuggling defenses have punt wars maybe.

Leaning Seahawks to win it all

my "easy" picks underlined.  those with just comments but not markings are too dicey for me

Sunday, Sep. 28
-1.5  Minnesota vs Pittsburgh  +1.5 9:30 am - international games are chaos not touching it
-2.5  Washington at Atlanta  +2.5 1:00 pm
+16.5  New Orleans at Buffalo  -16.5 1:00 pm 
+8.5  Cleveland at Detroit  -8.5 1:00 pm
+7.5  Tennessee at Houston  -7.5 1:00 pm - i like Hou to win but thats a lot of spread.  if i had to pick i would go titans to cover
+4.5  Carolina at New England  -4.5 1:00 pm
-5.5  LA Chargers at NY Giants  +5.5 1:00 pm - this might be a double-bet scenario... or triple-bet
-2.5  Philadelphia at Tampa Bay  +2.5 1:00 pm - eagles should win but that spread is crazy awkward to guess around
+4.5  Indianapolis at LA Rams  -4.5 4:05 pm - i might be guilty of wishful thinking here, but i would take colts on the moneyline to win outright
+3.5  Jacksonville at San Francisco  -3.5 4:05 pm - most interesting game of the week, with two borderline teams struggling with themselves.  i'm crazy interested in the result for future discussion, but def not picking a winner here
-2.5  Baltimore at Kansas City  +2.5 4:25 pm - unfortunately, this might also be a double-bet scenario; but i would rather not and cheer for KC :D
+1.5  Chicago at Las Vegas  -1.5 4:25 pm - the range of outcomes is so high with both these teams.. unlimited possibilities plays better in imagination than gambling
+5.5  Green Bay at Dallas  -5.5 8:20 pm - is Dal seriously favored here?  take Green Bay on the moneyline for higher payout!!  either that or triple-bet it
Monday, Sep. 29
+2.5  NY Jets at Miami  -2.5 7:15 pm
+7.5  Cincinnati at Denver  -7.5 8:15 pm

ugh 4/10 no bueno

<3 / gutlaugh

Browns still got cinci's number on D#.  why our kickers seem to all be cursed is... concerning.  hopefully the dropped passes clear up.  for cinci, preseason wasnt enough to iron out there offense?  that is concerning.  After Jags they got a lot of good D's to go up against, they will really need to get their precision back if they are going to succeed

Lions.PAckers.  Only one concern for Lions despite their epic loss.  That O-line needs to do better.  It was their biggest strength.  I made fun of them for drafting at that position as much as they did.  And now its their weakest point?  Concerned.  But my only concern, the rest of the pieces are there.  for GB, i do think they are for real.  they gave the eagles more of a struggle than anyone else last years playoffs in their SB ascension.  love's injuries look cleared out of the way.  and Parsons...  it is concerning the news reports that "No AFC Team wanted to trade for him."  collusion is the only thing that can make sense there

TB/Atlanta.  only caught the tail end of this one, but i still loved how TB was able to come through in the end.  Still got a lot of confidence there.  Atl I never had confidence in...  but i did like Penix in college so it was nice to see him looking legit.  

Pitt fans are probably going to like Rogers now LOL.  i was mostly just happy to see the Jets do well though.  like 3 of us IRL were feeling good about them, but the media reports had me questioning the collective instincts a little bit more than usual on this one.

GO BILLS!!  freaking love what they are doing in buffalo.  hopefully getting Hairston back will help their D# even out a little bit.  but some other guys were stepping up, and for once the bills miracle victory had help from more people than just josh allen.  

didnt get to watch Colts play but am super excited about their asskicking.  i had expected nothing less than failure from Mia though, so want to see it against a real team next.  Den next week will probably be an impossible mountain, but more winnable games are on the horizon after that

Hou might be my biggest concern.  i had thought they relied too much on Mixon last year.  now that flaw seems particularly emphasized

unanswered question:

i didnt get a good feel on how Sea game played out, and am very curious

also a little surprised Titans were as competitive as they were.  something to that? or just first week jitters for Den?

LV/Pats played out numerically like i expected but i havent even caught highlights there so that could just be coincidence rofl

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/fan-who-sued-over-shedeur-sanders-draft-slide-requests-early-discovery